这几年，人工智能的风头真是盖过了一切。从 ChatGPT 掀起全球热潮，到大厂们你追我赶投入算力，背后其实还有一个极其关键的问题： 钱从哪里来？ 2024 年，亚马逊、微软、谷歌、 Meta 这些"科技四大天王"在 AI 相关的数据中心建设上，已经烧掉了超过 2,500 亿美元 的资本开支 [1] 。你没看错， 是 两千五百亿美金，一年之内 ！ 那谁来填这个大坑？答案就是： 私募信贷 （ Private Credit ）。 传统银行现在越来越"惜贷"，尤其是对这些重资产、长周期的 AI 基建项目，银行吃不下、也不敢吃。反倒是私募信贷（ Private Credit ）异军突起，成了 香饽饽。 私募信贷的市场规模在这几年长势惊人： 2020 年时，全球私募信贷大约 1 万亿美元；到了 2024 年，已经涨到了 1.5 万亿美元；而且预计 2029 年会突 破 2.6 万亿 [3] 。为啥涨这么快？ 一方面是传统银行收缩信贷口子，另一方面则是投资机构和高净值人群，越来越青睐这种收益高、结构灵活的投资品种。你想想，现在银行定存都给不了 4% ，而私募信贷年化收益（注：预期）动不动就是 10% 以上，谁不动心？ 特别 ...

就像投资一样，真正成功的人不靠"猜哪只股票涨"，而是 构建一个包含多元分散配置、注重成本、和坚持长期耐心的投资系统 。短期选择难以预判，但系 统性原则可以长期坚持。 在这里让我用几个具体的例子和大家展开分析。以会计为例，很多家长担心 AI 的普及会让这个职业过时。确实，如果只是机械地生成报表， AI 几分钟就 能完成。但真正有价值的会计，不是数据的搬运工，而是能看懂数字背后的逻辑，参与资源配置、战略判断的高级管理人才。 AI 无法代替人的判断，也无 法在管理层会议上与 CEO 、 CFO 讨论如何优化现金流和资源分配。 AI 可以帮你做"怎么做"，但"做什么"与"为什么做"，仍然是人无可替代的领域。 每年高校发榜季，社交媒体和家长群体中都会反复响起同一个问题："孩子 应该报哪个专业 才更有前途？"如今，这个问题甚至成了一个"行业"，不少家长 愿意花钱请各种专业报考专家，比如张雪峰，为孩子量身定制志愿填报方案。他们希望通过专家的建议，帮孩子找到一条稳妥和安全的道路。 但我们要认真思考，这种问题的提出方式本身是否就存在某种误区？不是说找专家咨询没有意义，而是这种思维方式背后，隐藏着一种过于简化的线性认 知：认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins, regarded as the "digital dollar" of the crypto world, are currently at the forefront of regulatory reform, particularly following the signing of the Genius Act by President Trump, which establishes clear federal standards for stablecoin issuance and regulation [1][12]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The Genius Act mandates that only entities with federal licenses or those regulated by the Federal Reserve and FDIC can issue "payment stablecoins," requiring issuers to hold high-quality reserve assets such as cash or U.S. Treasury bonds [1][12]. Market Overview - As of July 22, 2025, the total market capitalization of global stablecoins is approximately $268 billion, with Tether (USDT) being the largest at around $161 billion, followed by USDC at about $65 billion [2][3]. Tether (USDT) - USDT is the most liquid stablecoin but has faced transparency issues regarding its reserves, leading to past controversies and fines from regulatory bodies [2]. USDC - USDC is the second-largest stablecoin, known for its transparent asset disclosures and public audits, but it faced a significant price drop during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023 [3][8]. Case Studies - The UST collapse in 2022 exemplified the risks of algorithmic stablecoins, where a failure in the underlying asset led to massive market losses [5][7]. - The USDC crisis in March 2023, triggered by the Silicon Valley Bank's insolvency, resulted in a 12% price drop, highlighting the importance of reliable asset backing and federal guarantees [8][9]. Key Insights - Stablecoins require real, liquid, and low-risk assets for stability, with U.S. dollars or Treasury bonds being the most trusted collateral [9]. - For stablecoins to become mainstream payment tools, they must integrate into traditional financial regulatory frameworks, ensuring compliance and security [9][12]. - The design of stablecoins should include fair redemption mechanisms and liquidity stress testing to prevent panic-induced runs [10][11]. Regulatory Developments - The Genius Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoins Ordinance aim to enhance transparency and risk control in stablecoin issuance, with different focuses on compliance and innovation [12][13]. - Both regulations emphasize the need for stablecoins to be treated as "digital cash" with regulatory oversight, aiming for a balance between safety, transparency, and efficiency [14]. Future Outlook - The U.S. and Hong Kong are likely to engage in a competitive yet complementary relationship regarding stablecoin internationalization, with U.S. stablecoins potentially integrating into global payment systems and Hong Kong serving as a bridge for digital RMB [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the true beneficiaries of the AI revolution are not only the companies creating AI technologies but also those that effectively integrate AI into their operations to enhance efficiency and profitability, referred to as "second-order winners" [1][2][9]. Group 1: Historical Context and Examples - Historical examples illustrate that during technological revolutions, the greatest returns often come from companies that leverage new technologies rather than those that create them. For instance, the automotive industry saw more significant gains from downstream service providers than from car manufacturers [1][2]. - Gulf Refining's establishment of self-service gas stations exemplifies how companies can capitalize on technological advancements without being the creators of the technology [2]. Group 2: AI Integration in Companies - Companies like Shake Shack have successfully integrated AI and automation to enhance operational efficiency, reducing the time to prepare meals and lowering labor costs while increasing employee wages and profit margins [3]. - Ecolab's modeling indicates that it can automate approximately 50% of high-probability automation roles, leading to significant cost savings and improved profit margins without altering revenue [4]. Group 3: Chinese Companies Leveraging AI - JD Logistics has implemented the "Zhi Lang" system, which has tripled picking efficiency and significantly improved sorting accuracy, contributing to its profit growth [6]. - Ping An has effectively utilized AI in insurance processes, achieving rapid underwriting and claims processing, which has led to substantial cost reductions and enhanced customer experience [6]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that have embedded AI into their operations, as these firms are likely to provide more stable returns compared to high-valuation AI technology creators [7]. - The characteristics of promising companies include labor-intensive operations that can benefit from AI cost reductions, clear and repetitive business processes, and the ability to scale AI applications effectively [7]. Group 5: Macro Economic Impact - The integration of AI is expected to reshape overall productivity in China, with projections indicating a potential GDP increase of about 8% by 2030 due to AI applications across various sectors [8]. - Companies that can quickly adapt and utilize AI to enhance efficiency are likely to continue benefiting from the efficiency dividends in the coming years [8]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that AI represents a revolution in efficiency, and investors should focus on companies that effectively integrate AI into their business models, as these "downstream" enterprises may yield better returns than those merely creating AI technologies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].

Core Viewpoint - The pursuit of happiness is often overshadowed by more concrete and realistic aspects such as family health, life security, and financial stability, rather than happiness itself [1][2]. Group 1: Research Findings - The study found that "children's health" has a marginal utility 67 times the average, indicating that respondents are willing to make significant sacrifices for even a slight improvement in their children's health [2]. - Other top welfare dimensions include "children's happiness," "ability to provide economic support for the family," and "personal health," while "life satisfaction" has a marginal utility of only 1.6-2 times the average, indicating a lower priority [2]. - The research suggests that happiness is not the ultimate goal but rather a byproduct of fulfilling responsibilities, health, and stability [2]. Group 2: Philosophical Perspectives - Historical perspectives from philosophers like Aristotle and Mencius align with the study's findings, emphasizing that happiness arises from a life of virtue and moral integrity rather than mere sensory pleasure [3][4]. - Both Western and Eastern philosophies converge on the idea that happiness is achieved through the realization of moral values rather than the accumulation of emotional gratification [4]. Group 3: Individual Preferences - The study highlights that individual preferences are shaped more by personal experiences, resources, and mental states than by demographic factors such as age, gender, or income [4][5][6]. - Personal experiences, including childhood environment and significant life events, significantly influence what individuals prioritize in life [5]. - Resources such as wealth, health, and social relationships determine the potential for achieving various welfare dimensions, affecting how individuals perceive value in different aspects of life [5]. Group 4: Psychological Factors - A person's cognitive state, including their emotional regulation and comparison mechanisms, profoundly impacts their happiness experience [6]. - There is often a discrepancy between what individuals claim is important and what they are willing to sacrifice for it, indicating that subjective happiness is a result rather than a goal [6][7]. - The study concludes that when individuals focus on stability, close relationships, and health, happiness naturally follows, rather than being a direct pursuit [7].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, 2024, has quickly become a focal point in the financial market, attracting over $75 billion in inflows within the first year despite regulatory challenges [1][4]. Market Performance - The first ten spot Bitcoin ETFs launched have shown exceptional performance, with IBIT, GBTC, and FBTC capturing the majority of market share. IBIT has accumulated over $60 billion in assets under management (AUM), while FBTC has around $20 billion. GBTC, despite its higher management fee of 1.5%, still holds nearly $20 billion in AUM [4]. - All spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately 80% annual returns since inception, primarily due to the relatively low Bitcoin price at launch ($42,000) compared to its price in early May 2025 (around $100,000) [8]. Advantages of Spot Bitcoin ETFs - **Liquidity and Convenience**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a convenient investment method for cryptocurrencies, mitigating storage and security risks associated with direct Bitcoin ownership, especially for institutional investors [10]. - **Cost Efficiency**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs generally have lower fees compared to futures ETFs, with HODL offering a 0% fee strategy, enhancing cost-effectiveness [11]. - **Low Correlation with Mainstream Assets**: The correlation of spot Bitcoin ETFs with global stock indices (MSCI ACWI) is around 0.25, providing diversification benefits for stock portfolios [12]. - **High Market Acceptance**: The direct tracking of Bitcoin prices by spot ETFs aligns with market expectations, leading to significant investor interest and trust in products like IBIT and FBTC [13]. Disadvantages of Spot Bitcoin ETFs - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The SEC's cautious stance on the Bitcoin spot market poses long-term challenges for the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs, as opposed to futures ETFs which are based on regulated futures contracts [15]. - **High Market Volatility**: Bitcoin's inherent price volatility presents risks, with annualized volatility for GBTC reaching 56.9%, similar for IBIT and FBTC [16]. - **Complex Arbitrage Mechanisms**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs may occasionally trade at prices deviating from their net asset value (NAV) due to liquidity and arbitrage constraints, as seen with GBTC's previous significant discount [17]. Future Outlook - The successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant shift in cryptocurrency investment methods, with IBIT and FBTC emerging as preferred choices due to their lower fees and high market acceptance. However, regulatory changes and increased market competition may introduce new uncertainties [18].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 2025 Singapore general election is a critical examination of the country's governance model, focusing on issues such as global competitiveness, political transparency, and social cohesion [15]. Political Landscape - The election will feature 211 candidates vying for 97 elected parliamentary seats across 33 constituencies, with the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) and the main opposition Workers' Party (WP) being the key players [2][4]. - The PAP, led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, has been in power since Singapore's independence in 1965, while the WP aims to secure at least one-third of the seats to enhance parliamentary checks and balances [4][5]. Party Positions - The PAP advocates for a continuation of globalization and economic openness, emphasizing order, efficiency, and elite governance, while providing limited support to disadvantaged groups [6]. - The WP promotes constructive checks and gradual reforms, focusing on living costs, housing affordability, and employment security, while maintaining fiscal sustainability [6]. - Other smaller opposition parties, such as the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), prioritize local citizen welfare and advocate for tighter foreign labor policies [6]. Voter Demographics - The PAP primarily attracts "winners" from the globalized economy, including well-educated individuals with stable jobs who benefit from economic growth [7]. - Conversely, some voters support the WP to ensure a healthy debate in parliament and to hold the PAP accountable for its decisions [9]. - A segment of the electorate, comprising those who feel left behind by globalization, may lean towards more populist opposition parties seeking greater government support and welfare [9][10]. Governance Debate - The election raises questions about the balance between freedom and order, with criticisms of the PAP's governance style focusing on political and speech freedoms [11]. - The success of Singapore's governance model is contrasted with other nations, such as Mauritius and Taiwan, highlighting the potential risks of centralized governance and the need for adaptability [12][13]. Future Considerations - The 2025 election serves as a reminder for voters to consider Singapore's ability to maintain its global competitiveness while fostering a more open and responsible civil society [15]. - The PAP must demonstrate its commitment to the public interest and effective governance to retain voter support amidst rising scrutiny [14].

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今天这篇⽂章，想与⼤家共同探讨⼀个话题：⼀个⼈能⾛多远，取决于什么？ 我想从⾃⼰⾝边的⼏个真实案例谈起。 案例⼀：来⾃伦敦集团总部的董事总经理 A 案例⼆：新加坡实习⽣ B B 是新加坡⼈，曾在本⼈公司实习过六个⽉。他出⾝于新加坡普通组屋家庭，兄弟三⼈，成绩⼀般，初中毕业后进⼊新加坡⼀所⼤专。【注：新加坡教育分 流机制如下：前 10% 的学⽣进⼊直通⻋中学（免中考，初⾼连读）；中考成绩前 20% 进⼊⾼中；其余约 50% 进⼊⼤专；剩下 20% 进职校。】 B 没有就此⽌步，⽽是从⼤专努⼒申请并成功进⼊南洋理⼯⼤学，主修物理（该校分数线最低专业）。在⼤四期间，他来到我公司实习。起初对⾦融投资⼀ ⽆所知，但他勤奋踏实，每天第⼀个到、最后⼀个⾛，完成任务⼀丝不苟，深受同事好评。实习结束后，他也很快从南洋理⼯⼤学毕业，然后进了⼀家新加 坡的基⾦公司。后来他特地发信给我们，告诉我如果没有这段实习经历，以他的成绩和物理专业背景，完全不可能进⼊基⾦公司。在基⾦公司⼯作两年后， B 跳槽去了德意志银⾏投⾏部。德银的投⾏部是⾮常难进的，是很多顶尖⼤学⾦融专业学⽣梦寐以求的职位。 案例三：我⾃⼰ 与 A 和 B 不同，我的起点 ...