当哈雷在伦敦皇家学会的档案中看到那份 《布雷斯劳死亡记录》 时，立刻被吸引住了。里面密密麻麻地记录着几千个名字、年龄和死亡年份，仿佛是一部 城市的生命日历。哈雷用了几个月时间，把所有数据重新整理、分类，计算出每个年龄段活下去的概率。比如，一个五岁孩子活到十岁的概率是多少，一个 四十岁的人再活二十年的机会有多大。 1687年 ，在德国西里西亚的布雷斯 劳城（今天波兰境内的弗罗茨瓦夫）， 有一位叫卡斯帕·诺依曼的牧师。他身材瘦削，说话温和，是那种一辈子都不 会被历史记住的人。他的日常工作很简单：主持洗礼、婚礼和葬礼，在教堂的账本上，一丝不苟地记录每一个新生命的诞生，也记录每一个灵魂的离开。 那时候的欧洲，还没有现代意义上的统计机构。政府不知道自己管辖的地区有多少人口，更不知道每个人平均能活多久。瘟疫、战争、饥荒，让生命变得脆 弱又短暂。诺依曼并不是科学家，他只是出于一种牧师的本能，相信在上帝面前，每一个生命都值得被记录。于是，他把教区里每一次出生与死亡都写下 来，精确到年龄、性别，甚至死因。在大雪纷飞的冬天，他照样披着斗篷，走到墓地确认死者信息；到了来年的春天，在每个婴儿接受洗礼的时候，他又会 在圣水旁写下孩子的 ...

1960年，一个叫 Simulmatics 的公司在美国诞生。它的创始人叫艾蒂尔·德·索拉·普尔（Ithiel de Sola Pool），是麻省理工大学的政治学家，信奉"只要 数据够多，人类行为就能被预测"。这家公司后来被称为"硅谷的祖父"，他们最早提出的口号是——" 用模型预测人心 "。 1960年美国总统大选，年轻的民主党候选人约翰·肯尼迪遇上了资深的共和党人尼克松。为了缩小差距，增加自己的胜算，肯尼迪团队找到了 Simulmatics，希望借助计算机和民调数据预测选民行为。当时麻省理工教授普尔与广告人爱德华·格林菲尔德和心理学家罗伯特·阿贝尔森共同创办 Simulmatics 公司。他们从盖洛普等民调中提取十万份问卷，用IBM打孔卡录入，建立了当时美国最大的政治数据库。Simulmatics把选民分成480个"心 理单元"，比如"中西部农村、低收入、新教女性"，又把选举议题划为五十种变量，如"就业"、"通胀"、"种族"、"宗教"等。所有这些数据被录入位于哥伦 比亚大学的IBM 704计算机。 1960年8月，肯尼迪团队正式雇用Simulmatics。公司连夜赶制报告，管理层在8月25日带着成果在罗伯特 ...

2008年金融危机爆发后，公众对金融行业充满愤怒，要求"有人付出代价"；政治人物、检察机关与媒体都需要一个能代表"贪婪银行家"的符号。于是，一 个在日本办公、操纵利率的英国交易员，成了最合适的替罪羊。 但九年后，剧情逆转。 2024年7月25日，英国最高法院推翻了这项判决，宣布原审不公，理由是陪审团在法官误导下被剥夺了判断"被告是否存在不诚实"的权力【2】。判决书看 似枯燥，却动摇了英国金融犯罪司法的根基。它恢复了刑法中最古老的原则： Mens Rea ，即" 罪行不仅在于行为，更在于心念 "。 由于这是一个典型的金融犯罪案件，同时它在历经九年时间后被英国最高法院逆转，因此值得我在这里向我的读者朋友们详细介绍和解释一下。 首先，让我先为大家科 普一下什么是 Libor。 LIBOR的全称是 伦敦银行间同业拆借利率（London Interbank Offered Rate） ，曾是全球金融市场最重要的基准利率之一。简而言之，Libor是大型国 际银行之间在无担保条件下相互借钱的平均成本。也就是说，LIBOR代表了"全球资金的批发价格"。 Libor的影响范围极其广泛。全球超过 300万亿美元 的金融合约（包括 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses historical instances of debt management through inflation and the implications for modern economies, particularly focusing on France's "two-thirds bankruptcy" in 1797 and Japan's prolonged economic stagnation since the 1990s, highlighting how governments can manage debt without outright defaulting [2][7][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Debt Management - In 1797, the French government reduced the value of government bonds by 67%, leading to significant losses for bondholders, a situation referred to as "two-thirds bankruptcy" [2]. - France's financial crisis was rooted in excessive debt accumulation due to continuous wars and ineffective tax reforms, resulting in a national debt of 5 billion livres by 1788, with interest payments consuming half of tax revenues [2][3]. - The introduction of the Assignat paper currency in 1789, initially backed by confiscated church lands, led to rampant inflation, with its total issuance reaching over 45 billion livres by 1796, nearly ten times France's GDP [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Consequences of Inflation - The inflation primarily affected the urban middle class, leading to protests and a loss of confidence in the currency, culminating in the abolition of the Assignat system in 1796 [5][6]. - The radical debt reduction plan proposed by Finance Minister La Meillur in 1797 effectively reduced France's debt-to-GDP ratio from 120% to below 40%, allowing the government to regain borrowing capacity [6]. - The aftermath of the debt reduction saw the "interest class" suffer significant losses, while the government stabilized its finances, illustrating the harsh realities of economic recovery post-crisis [6][14]. Group 3: Modern Parallels in Japan - Japan's economic situation post-1990 mirrors France's historical experience, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 250%, the highest globally, yet maintaining low bond yields due to the Bank of Japan's monetary policies [7][9]. - The implementation of "Abenomics" in 2013, particularly through aggressive monetary easing, has allowed the government to manage its debt without triggering market panic, effectively achieving a form of "implicit default" [7][9]. - Current inflation rates in Japan reached 3.1% in 2023, while bond yields remained low, resulting in negative real returns for investors, akin to the historical experiences of the French middle class [9][11]. Group 4: Lessons and Insights - Governments can manage debt through inflation rather than outright default, as seen in both historical and modern contexts, allowing for a "silent wealth transfer" from creditors to debtors [11][12]. - Investors should focus on real returns after accounting for inflation, as nominal returns can be misleading, with historical examples illustrating the erosion of purchasing power over time [12][13]. - Economic recoveries post-debt crises can be prolonged, with structural adjustments taking decades, as evidenced by both France and Japan's slow paths to recovery following their respective financial upheavals [14][15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the South Sea Bubble and the subsequent railway mania in 18th and 19th century Britain, highlighting the role of low interest rates, compelling narratives, and financial innovations in creating speculative bubbles [2][17][20] Group 1: South Sea Bubble - In the early 18th century, Britain faced a financial crisis with national debt exceeding £35 million, prompting the creation of the South Sea Company to convert debt into equity [2][3] - The South Sea Company was established in 1711, allowing creditors to exchange government bonds for company shares, effectively reducing the government's interest payments from 8% to 5% [2][3] - By 1720, the company's stock price skyrocketed from £128 to over £950 within months, fueled by speculative investments despite the lack of actual trade with Spanish colonies [5][8] - The company's profits were largely illusory, as actual trade was minimal, leading to a collapse when the illusion of wealth was exposed [8][9] - A political scandal involving bribery further eroded investor confidence, resulting in a dramatic fall in stock prices and widespread financial ruin [10][11] Group 2: Railway Mania - Following the South Sea Bubble, the 1830s saw a new wave of speculation during the railway boom, with the Bank of England lowering discount rates to 2% to stimulate investment [11][15] - The rapid expansion of the railway network saw investments soar, with the number of railway companies and stock prices doubling within a few years [13][14] - However, by 1846, the railway bubble began to burst as rising costs and a lack of actual funding led to a significant decline in stock prices, with an average drop of 30%-40% [15][16] - The financial panic of 1847 resulted in widespread bank failures and a collapse of the railway stock market, with losses amounting to £80 million, equivalent to 15% of the GDP at the time [16][17] Group 3: Common Themes - Both the South Sea Bubble and railway mania illustrate how low interest rates, enticing narratives, and financial innovations can lead to speculative excesses [17][20] - The article emphasizes that low interest rates can create a false sense of security, leading to over-leveraging and eventual market corrections [20][22] - Historical patterns of greed and fear are highlighted, suggesting that speculative bubbles are a recurring phenomenon driven by human psychology rather than isolated incidents [20][22]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the true revolution in Britain during the Industrial Revolution was not merely technological but fundamentally institutional, which allowed innovation to become profitable and risks to be shared and priced [7][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the mid-18th century, the combination of technological advancements, such as the steam engine, and institutional reforms, like the establishment of the Bank of England, marked the beginning of the mechanization of energy in Britain [2][3]. - By 1850, Britain dominated global coal production and textile exports, with its population and GDP experiencing significant growth [2]. Group 2: Institutional Reforms - The Glorious Revolution of 1688 established parliamentary control over taxation and legislation, fostering a trust in the government and enabling the development of a capital market [3][4]. - The introduction of the modern patent system in the 17th century allowed inventors to profit from their innovations, leading to a surge in technological advancements [4]. Group 3: Capital, Land, and Labor Mobility - The establishment of the London Stock Exchange and the implementation of the Bubble Act laid the groundwork for a regulated capital market, allowing companies to raise funds through shares [5]. - The enclosure movement privatized land, increasing agricultural efficiency and providing food for urban industrialization [5][6]. - The migration of displaced farmers to cities created a labor market, transforming workers into free wage earners and enabling the emergence of a modern economy [6]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - The article contrasts Britain's institutional success with the stagnation in China and the Ottoman Empire, where rigid systems stifled innovation and economic growth [8][10]. - The lack of inclusive institutions in China and the Ottoman Empire led to a failure to capitalize on technological advancements, resulting in significant disparities in economic performance [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The article highlights that institutional differences manifest over time, leading to significant economic disparities, as seen in the GDP growth between Britain and the Ottoman Empire from 1500 to 1900 [12]. - The evolution of British political institutions allowed for continuous self-correction and adaptation, contributing to long-term stability and prosperity [12][16]. Group 6: Critical Reflection - While the article acknowledges the successes of Britain's institutions, it also points out the darker aspects of industrialization, such as exploitation and inequality, reminding that progress often comes at a cost [15][16].

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical patterns of sovereign defaults, particularly focusing on Spain under Philip II, Venezuela, and Sri Lanka, highlighting the consequences of financial mismanagement and over-reliance on single resources [2][6][12] Group 1: Historical Context of Sovereign Defaults - Philip II of Spain faced a financial crisis shortly after ascending the throne due to extensive military expenditures and insufficient tax revenue, leading to the first sovereign default in European history in 1557 [2] - Spain's repeated defaults (1557, 1560, 1575, and 1596) were driven by military spending and a lack of sustainable economic structure, resulting in a loss of trust from creditors and a shift in financial power to Northern Europe [3][4][5] - The economic structure of Spain deteriorated as wealth from silver mines did not translate into industrial growth, leading to excessive imports and a weakened economy [4] Group 2: Modern Examples of Financial Mismanagement - Venezuela's reliance on oil revenues led to a rapid increase in debt and eventual sovereign default in 2017, with hyperinflation reaching 1,000,000% and severe shortages of basic goods [6][7] - Sri Lanka's heavy borrowing for infrastructure projects resulted in a sovereign default in 2022, as the country failed to manage its debt sustainably, leading to economic chaos [8][9] Group 3: Lessons on Resource Management - The phenomenon of "resource curse" is highlighted, where countries with abundant resources often face fiscal dependency, economic hollowing, and political corruption [7] - In contrast, Singapore's approach of prudent financial management and long-term planning, despite lacking natural resources, has led to sustained economic growth and stability [9][12] - The article emphasizes that wealth does not guarantee prosperity; rather, it is the balance of resource management and fiscal discipline that determines a nation's economic health [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context and consequences of the Treaty of Versailles, emphasizing the economic repercussions of imposing heavy reparations on Germany after World War I, which ultimately contributed to the rise of extremism and the onset of World War II [2][7]. Group 1: Economic Consequences of Reparations - The Treaty of Versailles demanded Germany to pay 1320 billion gold marks, approximately 33 billion USD in 1919, which was three times Germany's GDP at the time [2]. - The reparations led to hyperinflation in Germany, with the exchange rate of the German mark to the dollar plummeting from 75:1 in 1921 to 4.2 trillion:1 by November 1923 [4]. - The cycle of debt created a situation where Germany paid reparations to France and the UK, who in turn repaid their debts to the US, establishing the US as the largest creditor post-war [3][5]. Group 2: Political and Social Ramifications - The imposition of reparations and subsequent economic hardship fostered a sense of humiliation and resentment in Germany, which was exploited by Adolf Hitler to gain support by promising to restore national pride [7]. - Keynes warned that the punitive measures against Germany would lead to future conflict, highlighting the dangers of economic policies driven by revenge rather than cooperation [3][11]. Group 3: Lessons for Modern Debt Management - The article draws parallels between the post-World War I reparations and the 2010 Greek debt crisis, suggesting that punitive measures can lead to economic collapse and social unrest [8][10]. - It emphasizes the need for a shift from viewing debt as a moral failing to treating it as a financial tool, advocating for cooperative solutions rather than punitive measures [11][12]. - The evolution of European debt management post-2012, including restructuring and support mechanisms, illustrates a move towards collaborative approaches to financial crises [9][10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical case of John Law and the Mississippi Bubble, drawing parallels to modern economic situations, particularly in the U.S. [2][7][11] Group 1: Historical Context - In 1716, John Law proposed the idea that "paper money can create wealth" to address France's financial crisis, leading to the establishment of a private bank that issued paper currency [2] - The Mississippi Company, founded by Law in 1717, received a 25-year monopoly to develop the Louisiana territory, which was believed to be rich in resources [2][3] Group 2: Economic Boom and Bust - The stock price of the Mississippi Company skyrocketed from 500 to nearly 10,000 livres, creating a speculative frenzy among the public [3] - By 1719-1720, the circulation of paper money doubled, leading to a 100% increase in prices in Paris, which caused public distrust in paper currency [4] Group 3: Policy Responses and Consequences - Law's attempts to stabilize the economy through various policies, including making paper currency legal tender and restricting gold and silver holdings, failed and led to public panic [4][5] - The Mississippi Company's stock plummeted from 9,000 to 1,000 livres within weeks, resulting in Law's dismissal and the collapse of the paper money system in France [5][7] Group 4: Modern Parallels - The article draws a comparison between the Mississippi Bubble and current U.S. economic policies, suggesting that reliance on credit expansion without real production can lead to similar financial disasters [7][10] - The U.S. faces significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal deficit of 6.2% of GDP and public debt nearing $36 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of its economic model [8][10] Group 5: Trust and Credibility - The article emphasizes that the limits of monetary policy are defined by societal trust in the system, warning that repeated fiscal irresponsibility can erode this trust [11] - The potential for a trust crisis in the U.S. dollar is highlighted, suggesting that global capital may seek alternatives if confidence in the dollar diminishes [10][11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the economic collapse of Albania in the late 1990s, highlighting the rise and fall of pyramid schemes and the consequences of a weak financial system [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Economic Background - Albania, a small country in the Balkans, has a history of economic struggles, particularly after the collapse of its planned economy in 1991, leading to hyperinflation and a significant drop in per capita income [2]. - The transition to a market economy was chaotic, with the government implementing "shock therapy" that resulted in soaring prices and rising unemployment [2][3]. Rise of Investment Companies - From 1993 to 1996, numerous investment companies emerged in Albania, promising high returns of 10% to 30% per month, attracting significant public investment [3][4]. - By the end of 1996, these companies had absorbed funds equivalent to half of Albania's GDP, with government tacitly supporting their operations to maintain public confidence [3][4]. Collapse of the Financial System - The financial bubble burst in early 1997 when a major investment company stopped payouts, leading to a chain reaction of failures among other firms and widespread civil unrest [4][5]. - The collapse resulted in a severe economic regression, with many families losing their life savings and the country experiencing a decade's worth of economic setbacks [4][5]. Lessons and Parallels - The article draws parallels between Albania's experience and recent financial crises in emerging markets, where high-yield investment schemes have led to similar outcomes [5][6]. - It emphasizes the psychological factors driving investment behavior, where individuals are drawn to high returns despite the inherent risks, often leading to collective financial disasters [6][7]. Conclusion - The key takeaway is that the most dangerous times in financial markets often occur when everyone is making money, highlighting the importance of skepticism and patience in investment decisions [7].