从实际库存角度观察PPI——6月通胀数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation data for June, highlighting the changes in CPI and PPI, and their implications for the economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and price pressures across various sectors [3][14][25]. Group 1: June Price Data Summary - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, indicating a slight improvement in inflation after four months of negative values [3][18]. - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a larger decline than the previous month's 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [3][25]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter is estimated to be around 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in the first quarter [3][16]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was driven by a narrowing decline in food and energy prices, with food prices improving from -0.4% to -0.3% and energy prices from -6.1% to -5.1% [18][19]. - The rental market saw a seasonal increase in demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, which is lower than the average increase of 0.25% during the same period from 2015 to 2019 [4][19]. - Medical service prices have risen for three consecutive months, indicating potential ongoing inflationary pressures in healthcare [4][27]. Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was influenced by seasonal price decreases in domestic raw materials and increased green energy supply, which reduced energy prices [5][26]. - Specific sectors such as coal and electricity production experienced significant price drops, contributing to the overall PPI decline [5][26]. - The article notes that industries with high export ratios are facing price pressures due to a slowdown in global trade, impacting PPI negatively [5][27]. Group 4: Inventory Perspective on PPI - The actual inventory levels in various industries are crucial for understanding PPI trends, with high inventory levels typically exerting downward pressure on prices [6][9]. - As of May, the actual inventory growth rate in the mining and manufacturing sectors has decreased, which historically correlates with a potential upturn in PPI [6][9]. - The current inventory pressure is slightly higher than last year but significantly lower than in the first half of 2015, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for some sectors [7][12].