热点思考 | 《美丽大法案》：再次引爆“国债恐慌”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [2][6][9] - The bill legalizes Trump's economic policies, enhancing federal control over local governments and increasing discretionary power in key areas [2][6] - The economic effects include a mild boost to the U.S. economy, benefiting traditional industries while negatively impacting low-income groups [3][21][32] Group 2 - The bill is expected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by an average of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028 [21][22] - The legislation will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% will see an average increase of 2.3% [3][32] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries will benefit from investment depreciation incentives, while the renewable energy sector may suffer due to reduced subsidies [32][55] Group 3 - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a relatively friendly macro environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise moderately, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting 54% of the deficit increase [40][56] - The bill is unlikely to trigger a significant debt crisis, but it may systematically elevate term premiums [5][45][56]