汇率双周报 | 弱美元与“去美元化”是两码事！（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent depreciation of the US dollar, attributing it primarily to expectations of interest rate cuts, and questions whether this weakness is cyclical or indicative of a longer-term trend. It emphasizes the need to differentiate between cyclical factors and structural narratives like "de-dollarization" [2][6][82]. Group 1: Recent Drivers of Dollar Weakness - The US dollar has significantly weakened, with the dollar index dropping below 97, marking a 4.7% depreciation since its peak on May 12, 2022 [2][6][82]. - The primary driver of this weakness is the rapid increase in expectations for interest rate cuts, with implied cuts rising from 1.8 to 2.7 times since June 10, leading to a 23 basis point decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield [12][82]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, has reduced "safe-haven" demand for the dollar, further accelerating its decline [24][86]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Dollar Trends - The narrative of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West" has limited impact on the dollar's exchange rate, as the correlation between US GDP share and the dollar index is weak when excluding valuation effects [30][42]. - "De-dollarization" has not accelerated in recent years; excluding China, the dollar's share of global reserves has only decreased from 55% in 2016 to 52% in 2024 [42][46]. - There has been a temporary flight of capital away from US assets, but this trend lacks sustainability, as foreign investment in US Treasuries has stabilized since mid-May [54][82]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios for Dollar Strength - If the dollar's weakness is merely cyclical, it may not be prudent to use "de-dollarization" narratives to predict its long-term trajectory. Factors such as rising inflation pressures and a potential recovery in the US economy could support a rebound in the dollar [65][78]. - Employment resilience and inflation pressures may lead to a postponement of interest rate cuts, which could support a temporary strengthening of the dollar [65][88]. - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" could boost US economic growth, potentially leading to a stronger dollar as financial conditions ease [78][88].