华尔街见闻·2025-07-10 09:57Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to increase investments in instant retail and food delivery services in the coming quarters, which will significantly impact short-term profitability, but these factors are already reflected in the stock price. The strong growth momentum in cloud computing and leading position in AI provide long-term value support [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Position - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba but lowers the target price from $176 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current stock price of $107.99 [1]. - Since April 2024, competition in food delivery and instant retail has intensified, with Meituan launching a three-year support plan worth 100 billion RMB and JD.com initiating a one-year subsidy project worth 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - Alibaba's food delivery strategy was launched later, with a one-year subsidy plan worth 500 billion RMB starting on July 2 [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Growth - Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail has rapidly increased from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 5, 2025, while Meituan holds 55% and JD.com 9% [2]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Taobao and Tmall, leadership consolidation, aggressive subsidy strategies, and traffic support [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - HSBC has raised revenue forecasts for Alibaba for FY26-28 by 3-8%, reflecting accelerated growth in instant retail and food delivery orders, but has lowered profit expectations by 7-22% [9]. - For FY26, Alibaba is expected to incur losses of 2.7 RMB per order in food delivery and 3.7 RMB per order in instant shopping, with an overall loss of 55 billion RMB in local life services [9][10]. - The peak of investment is anticipated in the September quarter, with normalization expected in the second half of FY26 [9]. Group 4: Cloud Computing and AI Outlook - HSBC remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud computing prospects, forecasting over 20% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for FY26, driven by strong AI demand [10][16]. - Although there may be quarterly fluctuations in cloud business gross margins, they are expected to maintain a high single-digit level [10]. - In the generative AI infrastructure as a service (GenAI IaaS) market, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 23.5% in the second half of 2024, benefiting from its leading scale, strong product capabilities, and large enterprise customer base [16].