大宗商品反弹，仅仅是因为反内卷吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in bulk commodities, particularly polysilicon, is not solely due to the "anti-involution" discussions but is supported by macroeconomic and industrial fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The weakest bulk commodities this year are closely related to "coal + real estate," particularly black building materials and new energy products, which have entered a bottoming phase since June due to cost stabilization and unexpected demand [2]. - The oversupply of coal in the past two years has led to a collapse in costs for coal-related products, but recent stabilization in coal prices, driven by seasonal demand, has provided a foundation for the rebound of downstream commodities [2][3]. - Demand has exceeded expectations, with China's exports continuing to perform well despite global concerns, supported by a stable U.S. economy and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act, which will boost the U.S. economy in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Its Implications - The recent "anti-involution" policies have acted as a catalyst for further commodity rebounds, but the current supply-side reforms differ significantly from those initiated in late 2015, which focused on substantial capacity reduction in coal and steel industries [3]. - The current supply-side reform primarily targets the new energy sector, which has a smaller impact compared to previous reforms, as it mainly involves midstream manufacturing and does not significantly control raw material demand [3][4]. - The iron ore supply is global, and an increase in production is expected next year, indicating that coal, coke, and steel industries are not the main focus of the current supply-side reforms [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The impact of the current "anti-involution" is expected to be milder, serving as a trigger rather than the main driver of the commodity rebound, which is fundamentally supported [4]. - In the short term, due to healthy fundamentals, related commodities may still have room for rebound, but the potential for "coal + real estate" related commodities is limited due to ongoing oversupply [4]. - The future performance of leading polysilicon companies will largely depend on the implementation of policies, with prices previously driven down to industry minimum costs, and any recovery will hinge on policy execution and effectiveness [4].