研客专栏 | USDA7月报告前瞻：国内豆粕还要大跌？

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's July supply and demand report is expected to show slight adjustments in soybean supply and inventory, with a focus on the 2024/25 and 2025/26 crop years, reflecting changes in planting area, export sales, and crushing capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - For the 2024/25 crop year, U.S. soybean crushing reached 1.846 billion bushels by May, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, nearing the annual growth target [2]. - As of June 19, weekly net sales of old crop soybeans were around 500,000 tons, with cumulative export sales at 49.47 million tons, leaving 880,000 tons to meet the export target [2]. - The 2025/26 crop year is projected to have a planting area of 83.38 million acres, slightly down from previous estimates, with a yield forecast maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The CBOT soybean prices are fluctuating within a range of 1010-1080 cents per bushel, influenced by weather conditions and export demand, particularly from China [4]. - As of late June, approximately 12% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, slightly down from the previous week but higher than the same period last year [4]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal inventory levels were low prior to late June due to delayed imports and operational issues at crushing plants, but have since normalized as feed companies increased purchases [7]. - The price of soybean meal in East China dropped from 2910 yuan/ton in mid-June to 2810 yuan/ton by early July, reflecting changes in supply and demand dynamics [7][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming negotiations regarding U.S. agricultural product purchases by other countries may impact global soybean trade flows, potentially affecting domestic soybean meal prices [14]. - The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China could lead to increased competition between U.S. and South American soybeans, influencing market prices [14][15].