中金：关注反内卷效应 ——2025年6月物价数据点评

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI turned positive in June, primarily driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with energy and core goods showing improvement [1][2] - CPI food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with pork prices shifting from a 3.1% increase to an 8.5% decrease, negatively impacting CPI by 0.14 percentage points [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices improved, with CPI for these goods decreasing by 0.8%, a reduction in the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI further widened its year-on-year decline from -3.3% to -3.6%, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with 26 out of 30 categories showing no growth month-on-month [4][5] - Domestic and international energy prices exhibited divergent trends, with international oil prices recovering due to geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell due to seasonal demand and high inventory levels [5][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve prices in certain sectors, with prices for gasoline and new energy vehicles showing smaller year-on-year declines [6] Group 3: Policy Implications - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, addressing the supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by external uncertainties [7][8] - Policies are anticipated to promote consumption and improve supply-side regulations to correct market failures, aiming for a reasonable recovery in prices and sustainable innovation [8]