热点思考 | “反内卷”，被低估的决心（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the importance of policy coordination and market mechanisms [2][6][65] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee outlines a higher-level and broader coverage for the "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on the integration of local governments, enterprises, and residents [2][65] - The article identifies a significant decline in revenue growth for "involution" industries, dropping from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic reduction in average net profit growth to -28.2% [20][19][66] Group 2 - "Involution" is primarily manifested through low-price competition, which compresses supply chain costs, with accounts payable turnover decreasing to 4.6% in 2024, down by 1 percentage point from 2021 [26][31][66] - The internal cost-cutting measures in "involution" industries include a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% for 2024, and a decrease in management expenses growth to 2.6% [31][66] - The profitability of "involution" industries remains under pressure, with a return on assets (ROA) of 2.9% in 2024, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak, which may hinder long-term industry transformation and development [40][66] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, the focus should be on alleviating supply-demand contradictions and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50][66] - Structural transformation can be driven by policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][66] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service sector is crucial, as recent trends show a decline in employment in key service industries [56][66]