中金2025下半年展望 | 储能：出海新方向，市场新规重运营

Core Viewpoint - The global energy storage market is expected to experience rapid growth in the second half of 2025, with total shipments projected to reach 390 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [2][4]. Group 1: Global Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage shipments are anticipated to exceed 390 GWh in 2025, with regional breakdowns: China (133 GWh, +16%), Europe (63 GWh, +29%), Australia (7 GWh, +15%), Japan (3 GWh, +12%), and other regions (83 GWh, +59%) [2][7]. - The U.S. forecast has been revised down from 143.5 GWh to 90 GWh due to tariff issues [2][7]. - Front-of-the-meter storage is expected to exceed 300 GWh globally, driven by increased penetration of renewable energy and supportive policies [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Drivers - Policies aimed at enhancing energy security in Europe are expected to boost renewable energy development and, consequently, energy storage demand [2][3]. - The U.S. market may see a surge in demand due to potential tariff increases in 2026, prompting preemptive installations [2][21]. - In China, the cessation of mandatory storage requirements is expected to positively impact the economic viability of energy storage [27]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In Europe, the commercial storage market is poised for rapid growth, supported by government subsidies and dynamic pricing mechanisms [3][35]. - Australia is experiencing a significant increase in household storage demand due to extreme weather and rising electricity prices, with a projected 30% subsidy enhancing economic viability [28][65]. - India is implementing mandatory storage requirements for solar projects, indicating a growing market for energy storage solutions [30]. Group 4: Economic Viability and Market Trends - The economic feasibility of energy storage is improving globally, with various regions implementing supportive policies and incentives [4][35]. - The U.S. is witnessing a robust growth in household storage driven by tax incentives and increasing electricity demand [60][64]. - In emerging markets like Pakistan, high electricity prices and frequent outages are driving demand for solar-plus-storage solutions [56][71].