【策略】望向新高——2025年中期策略（张宇生/郭磊/王国兴）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for market recovery and growth in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as sustained corporate profit recovery, liquidity, and the rise of emerging industries [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The upcoming deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is unlikely to resolve trade issues within the 90-day period, leading to a gradual spread of external uncertainties beyond tariffs [3]. - Global equity assets have rebounded to relatively high levels since the beginning of the year, indicating that investors believe the most severe impacts of tariff issues are behind them [3]. - Domestic policies are expected to remain proactive to mitigate extreme risks similar to those faced earlier in the year, while the domestic economy is anticipated to maintain resilience [3]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Market Expectations - The sustained recovery of corporate profits, driven by improved domestic demand, real estate data, and new financial tools, is expected to continue supporting A-share performance [4]. - High liquidity in the capital markets, coupled with active micro-level funding and ongoing policy support for equity markets, is likely to attract more incremental capital [4]. - Emerging industries, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductors, are gaining momentum due to policy support and external pressures, positioning them as new growth points for the economy [4]. Group 3: Sector Focus - In the consumer sector, three areas of focus include: 1) domestic demand subsidies related to home appliances and consumer electronics; 2) offline service consumption, particularly in Hong Kong's dining and tourism sectors; 3) new consumption trends [6]. - In the technology sector, attention is directed towards AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, defense, and low-altitude economy [6]. - The dividend sector is highlighted for its high-quality stock selections [6]. Group 4: Market Trends - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential parallels to the market performance in 2019 [5]. - There are still existing expectation gaps regarding the sustainability of fundamental improvements, continued capital inflows, and opportunities arising from emerging industries [5].