换个视角看“大漂亮法案”（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The OBBB Act represents a significant step towards tightening eligibility for transfer payments, reflecting Trump's commitment to reducing government spending and promoting work among Americans rather than reliance on welfare [1][11]. Summary by Sections OBBB Act Details - Trump's determination to cut spending is evident in the OBBB Act, which aims to address the projected $40 trillion deficit over the next decade by focusing on marginal deficit changes under the "Current Policy" baseline [3]. - The overall tax reduction scale over ten years is approximately $1.5 trillion, with personal tax cuts amounting to about $420 billion and corporate tax deductions around $285 billion [5]. Key Spending Areas - Significant reductions in broad healthcare (Medicaid), social security (SNAP), and IRA subsidies are projected, totaling $1.08 trillion, $114 billion, and $540 billion respectively over ten years [6]. Political Implications - The OBBB Act is characterized by "deficit front-loading," indicating a shift in policy focus from expanding coverage to prioritizing eligibility verification [8][14]. - Trump's approach to spending cuts does not favor red or swing states but applies uniformly, potentially impacting support in swing states due to stricter SNAP eligibility requirements [15]. Implementation Timeline - The tightening of Medicaid and SNAP eligibility requirements is set to begin in October 2026, with adjustments to IRA subsidies occurring within the year [18]. Broader Economic Impact - The act aims to encourage work among the eligible population, countering the perception of welfare dependency, and is seen as a corrective measure against policies perceived as enabling laziness [11][13].