瑞·达利欧新书最新警告：当下全球正处于 “ 死亡螺旋 ” 临界点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global order due to the convergence of the "Great Debt Cycle" and "Five Forces," as articulated by Ray Dalio in his new book "Why Nations Fail: The Great Cycle" [1][3]. Group 1: Great Debt Cycle - The Great Debt Cycle typically spans about 80 years, leading to significant debt bubbles and their eventual bursts [6][9]. - The cycle consists of five stages: 1. Sound monetary phase with low net debt levels [11]. 2. Debt bubble phase characterized by low-cost borrowing and economic expansion [12]. 3. Peak phase where the bubble bursts, leading to simultaneous contraction in debt, credit, and the economy [13]. 4. De-leveraging phase where debt levels adjust painfully to match income levels [14]. 5. Recovery phase where a new balance is achieved, initiating a new cycle [15]. Group 2: Five Forces Influencing the Future - The first force is the debt/credit/money/economic cycle, which creates purchasing power and drives asset prices but also leads to debt accumulation [19]. - The second force involves internal order and chaos cycles, where political fluctuations can lead to significant changes in governance over approximately 80 years [20][21]. - The third force is the external order and chaos cycle, highlighting the shift from multilateralism to unilateralism, with increasing competition among nations [24][25]. - The fourth force is natural forces, where disasters like droughts and pandemics have historically caused more disruption than wars [26][27]. - The fifth force is human creativity, particularly technological advancements like AI, which will profoundly impact various sectors [28][42]. Group 3: Future Predictions - There is a high probability (65%) of a global debt restructuring crisis within the next five years, which could severely impact the dollar's dominance [3][35]. - Political shifts towards authoritarianism may occur as populist conflicts intensify within nations [36]. - The next five years are expected to witness significant technological advancements, particularly in AI, which will reshape industries [40][41].