国泰海通｜固收：转债新高，困局何解

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market has reached new highs, with average prices surpassing 124 yuan, while theoretical constraints on convertible bond pricing may limit future price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the convertible bond index has risen by 8.28% since the beginning of the year, with an average closing price of 124.00 yuan, placing it in the 93rd percentile since 2020 [1]. - The median closing price is 125.78 yuan, also in the 93rd percentile since 2020, indicating a significant increase in bond prices [1]. - The proportion of low-priced convertible bonds (below 110 yuan) has decreased to 3.63%, reflecting a tightening supply of affordable options [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The average parity of convertible bonds is 94.72 yuan, with an average conversion premium of 44.46%, suggesting a significant elevation in current valuations compared to historical levels [2]. - Three scenarios for the equity market's future are proposed: continued upward movement leading to redemptions of bank and brokerage bonds, a sideways market prompting profit-taking, and a downward trend resulting in valuation declines for high-premium bonds [2]. - The short-term outlook suggests a potential consolidation in the equity market, with a focus on structural opportunities in convertible bonds, particularly through low-price and non-redeemable strategies [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - Current challenges in selecting convertible bonds include a scarcity of low-priced options, high valuations, and the equity market being at a cyclical peak [3]. - Suggested strategies to navigate these challenges include focusing on sectors with strong earnings potential, such as electronics and semiconductors, and identifying non-redeemable bonds that may offer premium opportunities [3]. - The approach also emphasizes finding price or valuation gaps to mitigate the impact of high pricing in the current market [3].