高温拉动发电回升【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are anticipated to trend upwards [1][12] - The recent announcement of tariffs has led to a significant increase in copper prices, while concerns over supply have caused London copper prices to weaken [12] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen an expanded decline, while used car sales have slightly narrowed their drop; overall, the housing market is showing signs of cooling [2][3] - Service consumption during the summer has been robust, with increased foot traffic in commercial areas and rising hotel room rates [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The extension of reciprocal tariffs has been announced, with potential tariffs of 15-20% on most economies [4][5] - Export activity may experience a slight downturn, with a decrease in shipping weight growth to the U.S. [7] Group 4: Production Insights - Production continues to exhibit seasonal characteristics, with high temperatures potentially improving electricity generation [8][10] - Steel production is declining due to increased maintenance schedules, while cement production is also down due to adverse weather conditions [9] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The overall trend in commodity prices has shown a decline, with fluctuations in various sectors [11][12]