Group 1: Key Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling and increases the deficit rate, legalizing "Trump economics" [7] - The act is projected to impact the nominal GDP of the year at $29.2 trillion, with a 10-year deficit effect of $3.9 trillion, accounting for 13% of the GDP [7] - The act's economic effects and potential to reignite "U.S. debt panic" are under scrutiny [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Trends - June inflation data shows a CPI of 0.1% year-on-year, with PPI at -3.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends [16] - The U.S. is shifting from equal tariffs to "discriminatory tariffs," with new tariffs set to take effect on August 1, 2025 [19] - Domestic travel intensity remains high, reflecting robust consumer activity [21] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity and regulation of low-price competition among enterprises [29] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of promoting high-quality development in the marine economy and enhancing marine ecological protection [29]
申万宏观·周度研究成果（7.5-7.11）
申万宏源宏观·2025-07-12 04:03