美国低招聘、低裁员——全球经济观察第3期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Performance - European stock markets led the gains, with the UK FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC rising by 1.3%, 2%, and 1.7% respectively [1] - In the US, the S&P 500 remained flat, the Dow Jones fell by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.1% [1] - Major bond yields mostly rose, with Japan's 10-year bond yield increasing by 16 basis points due to concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the Senate elections [1] - Commodity prices for gold and oil saw a decline, while the US dollar index rose by 0.9% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a divergence in views among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, with some supporting a rate cut in July while others preferred to maintain current policies [4] - Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut path remained largely unchanged from the previous week [4] - President Trump exerted pressure on Fed Chairman Powell, claiming interest rates were too high and suggesting potential candidates for the next Fed chair [4] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, indicating low layoffs and a stable labor market [13] - One-year inflation expectations slightly decreased to 3%, while three-year and five-year expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [13] - President Trump delayed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs until August 1, while announcing a 50% tariff on copper to boost key domestic industries [13] - The market reacted strongly to the copper tariff announcement, with COMEX copper futures rising over 12% on the day [13] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Germany's industrial output rebounded by 1.2% in May, exceeding market expectations, driven by growth in the automotive and energy sectors [29] - Japan's wholesale price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, down from a revised 3.3% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [30]