【汽车】商业化要素齐备，无人物流时代开启——无人物流车跟踪报告（倪昱婧/邢萍）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential growth and commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles, highlighting their efficiency in urban delivery and the favorable conditions for large-scale deployment by 2030 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Application and Market Potential - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for short-distance transportation and last-mile delivery, effectively addressing labor shortages in remote areas and peak times, with high delivery efficiency and broad application range [2]. - The current penetration rate of unmanned logistics vehicles is approximately 0.1%, indicating significant growth potential, with projections suggesting sales could exceed 800,000 units and market size could surpass 10 billion by 2030 [4]. Group 2: Commercialization Factors - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is supported by mature conditions in policy, technology, and cost, with favorable regulations in second and third-tier cities and a rapid increase in road licenses since 2024 [3]. - Technologically, unmanned logistics vehicles operate in low-speed and fixed-route scenarios, which lowers the algorithm and computing power requirements compared to other L4 autonomous driving applications [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Industry Dynamics - Short-term profitability is expected to be higher for component suppliers than for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), with a focus on domain control and steer-by-wire chassis suppliers [5]. - Unmanned logistics vehicle companies may primarily rely on software service fees for profitability, with component manufacturers that have platform capabilities and deep ties with leading unmanned logistics firms being favored [6].