热点思考 | “反内卷”，被低估的决心（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the role of government, enterprises, and residents in this context [2][65] - The current round of "anti-involution" is characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger coordination, with a focus on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price disorderly competition [2][65] - The revenue growth rate of "involution" industries is projected to decline significantly from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic drop in average net profit growth to -28.2% in 2024 [20][19] Group 2 - "Involution" may lead to negative feedback, hindering industrial transformation and affecting long-term industry development, as evidenced by a decline in return on assets (ROA) to 2.9% in 2024, down 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak [40][4] - The low-price competition strategy has resulted in a decrease in accounts payable turnover rate to 4.6% in 2024, while inventory turnover remains high at 5.4%, indicating a shift in cost management strategies [26][31] - Internal cost control measures in "involution" industries have led to a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% in 2024, and a decrease in employee growth rates, with average salary growth dropping to 4.6% [31][40] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, it is crucial to alleviate supply-demand contradictions and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50] - Structural transformation can be achieved through policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][56] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service industry is essential, as recent trends show a decline in employment in sectors like culture, education, and health [56][55]