汽车行业7月投资策略：新品密集上市有望提振板块景气度，建议关注财报行情【国信汽车】

Sales Tracking - In June 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6%. Cumulative retail sales from January to June reached 10.901 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year [1] - In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.111 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2%. Cumulative sales for the first half of the year reached 5.468 million units, a growth of 33.3% [1] - The cumulative number of new passenger car registrations in June was 1.9579 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 1.0371 million units, up 30.7% year-on-year [1] Market Performance - In June, the CS automotive sector fell by 0.13%, with the CS passenger car index down 2.34%. The CS commercial vehicle index decreased by 0.25%, while the CS automotive parts index rose by 0.92%. The CS automotive sales and service index increased by 1.42%, and the CS motorcycle and others index rose by 6.72% [1] - From the beginning of 2025 to June, the automotive sector increased by 28.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 14.72%, and the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 15.78% [1] Cost Tracking - As of the end of June 2025, the prices of float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots changed year-on-year by -27.3%, +2.3%, and -6.4%, respectively. Month-on-month changes were -5.6%, +1.7%, and -2.0% [2] Inventory - In May 2025, the inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [3] Market Focus - Key areas of interest include the launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service, the acceleration of domestic Robotaxi deployment, and the upcoming Tesla earnings call at the end of July. New models to watch include Li Auto's i8, Zeekr's 9x, Leapmotor's C11, and others [3] Upcoming Models - A list of new models set to launch in July includes vehicles from various manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Geely, Li Auto, BYD, and Tesla, with prices ranging from 8.38 to 162.68 million yuan [4] Earnings Forecast - Several companies have reported high growth in their earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, including Asia-Pacific Holdings with an expected net profit of 190-210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.97%-101.13%, and Longxin General with a forecast of 1.005-1.12 billion yuan, a growth of 70.52%-90.03% [7][8]