【石油化工】OPEC+加速完成增产目标，IEA再度下调原油需求预期——行业周报第411期（0707—0713）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in oil prices driven by seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production strategies, highlighting the complex dynamics of the global oil market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The current oil price rebound is attributed to the peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $70.63 and $68.75 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively from the previous week [3]. - OPEC+ has announced plans to accelerate its production targets, with a significant increase of 710,000 barrels per day from Saudi Arabia in June, exceeding its quota [4]. Group 2: Production and Demand Forecasts - IEA has adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply growth, predicting an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 700,000 barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. - Despite a downward revision in demand growth expectations, IEA anticipates a seasonal peak in refinery output, with an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day from May to August, reaching a total of 85.4 million barrels per day [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The European Union is moving towards implementing a new price cap mechanism on Russian oil, potentially lowering the current cap from $60 to around $50 per barrel, which aims to maintain pressure on Russian oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [6].