【有色】6月中国消费商电解铜库存创近6年同期新低——铜行业周报（20250707-20250711）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in copper prices and affect global supply dynamics [3]. Macro Analysis - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may halt the arbitrage of copper inventory flowing to the U.S. since February 2025 [3]. - The SHFE copper closing price was 78,430 CNY/ton, down 1.63% from July 4, while LME copper closed at 9,663 USD/ton, down 1.92% [3]. Inventory Overview - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [4]. - As of July 11, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Insights - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 836 CNY/ton this week [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Data - The TC spot price remained around -43 USD/ton, indicating low levels not seen since September 2007 [6]. - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6]. Demand Analysis - Cable operating rates increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [7]. - Air conditioning production is expected to slow down, with year-on-year declines projected for July to September [7]. Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.6% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 17.6% [8]. - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, which is at the 48th percentile since 1995 [8].