Dow(US:DOW) 光大证券研究·2025-07-13 13:47Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical plans to close its organic silicon plant in the UK, impacting approximately 145,000 tons/year of siloxane capacity, which accounts for about 30.5% of Europe's total siloxane capacity as of 2024. This closure is attributed to high energy costs, stricter environmental regulations, and intensified global competition in the organic silicon industry [2]. Group 1: Dow Chemical's Plant Closures - Dow Chemical announced the closure of its ethylene cracking facility in Germany and its organic silicon plant in the UK, with the UK plant expected to close by mid-2026 [2]. - The closure of the UK organic silicon plant will significantly reduce the supply of organic silicon in Europe, potentially alleviating downward price pressure caused by global overcapacity [2]. Group 2: Policy Impacts on Organic Silicon Demand - Recent favorable policies in the photovoltaic and real estate sectors are expected to boost demand for organic silicon products. The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality [3]. - The push for new urbanization and the recovery of the photovoltaic and construction industries are anticipated to enhance the overall demand for organic silicon, leading to improved industry conditions [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 2025, domestic organic silicon DMC capacity is projected to remain at 3.44 million tons/year, with no new capacity expected in 2025. Although 1.85 million tons/year of capacity is planned for 2026-2027, delays are anticipated due to financial pressures on companies [4]. - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China from January to May 2025 reached 838,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 25%, indicating a steady increase in demand despite supply constraints [4].