中金 | “科特估”专题（2）：格局重构和产业浪潮下的科创投资

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the new cycle of the science and technology innovation market, driven by macroeconomic changes, industry trends, and market dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of AI and related sectors on investment opportunities and strategies. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The science and technology innovation market has shown structural opportunities since the beginning of the year, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rising approximately 18% from the start of the year, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductor sectors [2][17] - The AI sector has demonstrated a spillover effect, positively impacting related fields such as innovative pharmaceuticals, smart healthcare, and national defense industries [2][17] - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 40.1% compared to the 18.0% and 10.7% increases in the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index and the ChiNext Index, respectively [2][18] Group 2: Driving Factors - Continuous support policies for science and technology innovation have been implemented, focusing on financing support and capital market reforms, including the establishment of a national venture capital fund targeting cutting-edge fields like AI and quantum technology [3][22][24] - The DeepSeek technology breakthrough is reshaping the global technology narrative, enhancing China's position in the AI sector and potentially boosting GDP by an additional 9.8% by 2035 [4][28][30] - The impact of tariffs on the profitability of science and technology enterprises is expected to be limited, with a trend towards domestic substitution and international expansion [5][31][32] Group 3: Industry Trends - The AI industry is entering a new phase of commercialization, with significant advancements in large model performance and a growing demand for AI applications across various sectors [9][10] - High-end manufacturing is experiencing marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with capital expenditures in sectors like batteries and consumer electronics showing signs of expansion [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from policy optimization and accelerated internationalization, with a notable increase in license-out transactions [11][14] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategies - The valuation of science and technology enterprises has room for improvement, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index showing forward P/E ratios of 50.7x and 21.6x, respectively, indicating a divergence in valuation across sectors [12][13] - The report suggests that the science and technology innovation sector remains a suitable allocation in the current environment, with a focus on AI, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key areas for investment [13][14]