中金：哪些行业有望受益“反内卷”？

Core Viewpoint - The increasing focus on "anti-involution" policies reflects the need to address supply-demand imbalances and unhealthy competition in various industries, particularly in the context of China's economic environment and the challenges posed by rapid capacity expansion and price wars [2][4]. Policy Development - Since mid-2023, China's GDP deflator index turned negative, indicating weak price levels and insufficient effective demand, leading to heightened attention on "anti-involution" policies [2]. - The Politburo meeting in July 2024 first introduced the concept of "involutionary competition," emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and mechanisms for phasing out inefficient capacity [2][3]. - Subsequent meetings and reports have reiterated the importance of combating "involution," with the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024 listing it as a key task for 2025 [2][3]. Industry Responses - Various industries, including cement, steel, and photovoltaics, have initiated self-regulatory measures to reduce production and stabilize prices, indicating a collective effort to address the challenges posed by overcapacity and price competition [2][3]. - The Steel Industry Association and other industry bodies have held meetings to promote self-discipline and adherence to fair competition principles [3]. Comparison with Supply-Side Reform - The current "anti-involution" policies differ from previous supply-side reforms, which primarily targeted traditional industries like steel and coal, focusing on reducing excess capacity and stabilizing prices [5][10]. - The new policies also address emerging sectors, such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, which have experienced similar issues of low-price competition and capacity expansion [10][11]. Expected Impact on Industries - Industries that have faced supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition are expected to see a solidification of profit margins as "anti-involution" policies take effect [13]. - The focus on self-discipline and improved competition dynamics is anticipated to lead to a more favorable market environment for sectors like steel, cement, and new energy [20]. Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include energy materials, high-end manufacturing, and traditional manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on steel, cement, and new energy vehicles [18][20]. - The policies aim to accelerate the process of capacity reduction and improve profitability and market performance across these industries [20].