【招银研究】“反内卷”进行时——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.07.14-07.18）

Group 1: Economic Overview - Investment remains a drag on the US economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2, entirely driven by a reduction in imports [2] - Employment market shows resilience, with weekly initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 227,000, remaining at seasonal lows [2] - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal deficit of $131.1 billion, higher than seasonal levels and stronger than historical averages [2] Group 2: US Market Performance - US stock market experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, driven by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate outlook and differing expectations on tariffs' impact on inflation [3] - The outlook for US stocks suggests a potential return to a bullish trend, supported by corporate earnings resilience, although high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Short-term focus on liquidity tightening pressure following the increase of the debt ceiling, with a maintained view of high volatility in US bond yields [3] - Strategy suggests maintaining a high allocation to short- to medium-term US bonds, with attention to potential opportunities if yields rise [3] Group 4: Currency Analysis - The US dollar is experiencing short-term support due to delayed tariffs and economic resilience, but medium-term trends remain weak due to uncertainties in tariff policies and fiscal pressures [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by mixed factors including tariff impacts and ongoing interest rate differentials with the US [3] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term gold prices may remain volatile due to geopolitical issues and cooling interest rate expectations, but medium-term support is expected from central bank gold purchases [4] Group 6: Chinese Economic Trends - Anticipated Q2 economic growth of approximately 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth around 4% and a GDP deflator potentially declining to -1.2% [6] - Retail price competition continues, with significant growth in instant retail orders and a notable increase in passenger vehicle sales, despite challenges in the automotive sector [6] Group 7: External Demand and Pricing Pressure - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in global manufacturing and demand [7] - Chinese exports to the US are cooling, while exports to non-US regions remain strong, although pricing pressures are evident across various sectors [7] Group 8: Policy Developments - Recent government policies aim to stabilize employment and support businesses, including increased unemployment insurance and social security subsidies [7] Group 9: Domestic Market Strategy - Domestic market sentiment is improving, with a focus on "anti-involution" policies and urban renewal expectations, leading to a stronger stock market performance [9] - Bond market shows weakness, with a rise in 10-year government bond yields to 1.66%, influenced by risk appetite and tightening liquidity [9] Group 10: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are experiencing upward movement driven by various factors, including easing US-China trade tensions and urban renewal policies, although the market remains vulnerable to corrections [10] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of volatility, with current valuations at high levels and requiring further catalysts for upward movement [10]