【招银研究】一张图看懂2025年下半年重点行业景气度变化

Group 1: Industry Trends - The overall investment scale for domestic wind power in 2025 is expected to be around 478 billion [18] - The photovoltaic sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a short-term demand window expected to close as domestic installations end [18] - The oil price is anticipated to stabilize around $70 per barrel, supporting offshore oil and gas development and equipment operation markets [16] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Breakthrough innovations in AI technology are expected to drive significant growth in China's tech sector, with a focus on AI models, hardware, and smart driving [6] - The AI capital investment continues to expand, with a dual-track pattern emerging in the computing market, emphasizing training and inference [11] - The domestic market for innovative high-value consumables and medical devices is projected to return to a growth trajectory, focusing on innovation and international expansion [39] Group 3: Consumer Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with a projected 8% year-on-year growth in domestic car sales for 2025 [22][25] - The retail sector is expected to see a decline in growth rates, influenced by internal demand and external tariff impacts [24] - Long-term mechanisms to boost consumption are still being explored, focusing on enhancing residents' income and improving social security systems [23] Group 4: International Expansion - Chinese companies are increasingly proactive in overseas markets, with significant growth in sectors like engineering machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and cross-border e-commerce [32] - The trend of "tariff wars" is accelerating the evolution of cross-border e-commerce from a price-based competition to a more refined operational model [34] - The share of Chinese self-developed games in the global market is approximately 11%, with future trends indicating a focus on high-quality products and comprehensive ecosystem development [40]