金属周报 | 美国50%铜关税引爆COMEX铜价，流动性风险推升银价

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights a significant increase in copper prices due to Trump's unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper, effective from August 1, which exceeded market expectations [3][5][6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced a strong performance, with COMEX gold rising by 0.71% and silver by 5.22% [2][4] Copper Market Analysis - The announcement of the 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper has led to a substantial rise in COMEX copper prices, with a maximum increase of over 15% during the week [5][6] - As of now, the U.S. has imported over 700,000 tons of electrolytic copper, with expectations to reach 900,000 tons by the time the tariff is implemented, matching last year's total imports [3][7] - The market anticipates that the tariff will redirect copper shipments to Asia or China, potentially increasing pressure on China's electrolytic copper inventory [7][8] - The SHFE copper price has faced downward pressure, testing the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton, while the market expects a significant increase in copper imports to China [7][8] Precious Metals Market Review - The precious metals market saw high volatility, with COMEX gold and silver trading within specific ranges, driven by increased macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][23] - Silver prices surged due to tight supply-demand dynamics, reaching levels not seen since 2011, influenced by potential short squeeze risks [4][23] - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio has been declining, indicating stronger performance of silver relative to gold [25] Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 39,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 436 million ounces [40] - The positioning data shows that non-commercial long positions in gold increased, while short positions also rose, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [45]