国泰海通｜宏观：金融超预期：三条线索——2025年6月社融数据点评

Core Insights - The financial data for June exceeded expectations, driven by three main factors: improved corporate liquidity due to debt resolution policies, strong foreign exchange settlement intentions under the expectation of currency appreciation, and a narrowing of household balance sheet contraction [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% in June, up from 8.7%, with new social financing amounting to 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan [1]. - New government debt reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, while new loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, up 171 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The balance of loans remained stable at a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, with foreign currency loans increasing by 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.3 billion yuan, marking the third-largest contribution to June's social financing [1]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Financial Data - Factor 1: Debt Resolution Policies Corporate liquidity has significantly improved under debt resolution policies, with a notable increase in government debt and stable government deposits, leading to a substantial rise in corporate deposits and short-term loans [6]. - Factor 2: Currency Appreciation Expectations Following a weakening of the US dollar, corporate willingness to settle in foreign currency has surged, contributing positively to corporate deposits amid expectations of renminbi appreciation [6]. - Factor 3: Household Balance Sheet Adjustments The contraction of household balance sheets has narrowed, with a noticeable decrease in early repayment rates for housing loans in June, although the elasticity of household loan growth remains to be observed [6].