国泰海通 · 晨报0715｜交运、金工

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote deeper reforms across various industries, particularly benefiting the transportation sector, including aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations, potentially improving industry profitability if implemented effectively [3]. Aviation - The "anti-involution" initiative will enhance revenue management strategies, ensuring a slow growth in fleet planning. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has emphasized the need to address low-efficiency, homogeneous competition, which has led to excessive low pricing and capacity deployment [4]. - In 2024, airlines are shifting their revenue management strategy from "ticket price priority" to "seat occupancy priority," which is expected to improve fleet turnover and occupancy rates. However, despite record high occupancy rates in the second half of 2024, ticket prices remain below 2019 levels, which may hinder the industry's recovery [4]. - The ongoing improvement in supply and demand since 2025, along with the initial positive changes in revenue management strategies, suggests that the "anti-involution" policy will help reduce excessive low pricing and support the recovery of industry profitability [4]. Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to foster a healthy competitive pricing environment in the express delivery sector. The State Post Bureau has reiterated its opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to renewed price wars among leading companies since the second half of 2024, putting pressure on profitability [5]. - The continued enforcement of the "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote natural market concentration and the rise of leading firms in the express delivery industry [5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The "anti-involution" initiative is likely to stabilize and rebound bulk prices, which will benefit profitability in the bulk supply chain sector. Despite the inherent risks associated with price fluctuations, the implementation of capacity reduction measures is expected to support price stabilization in key industries such as steel and coal [5]. - As a result, bulk supply chain companies are projected to gradually recover their profitability, with leading firms likely to continue gaining market share [5].