国泰海通｜交运：“反内卷”各行业推进，利好交运业多板块

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on "anti-involution" by the central government is expected to promote deeper reforms across various industries, particularly benefiting the transportation sector, including aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations, potentially improving industry profitability if measures are effectively implemented [1]. Aviation - The "anti-involution" initiative is anticipated to enhance revenue management strategies, ensuring that fleet planning continues to grow at a slow pace. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has highlighted that the essence of "involution" is inefficient, homogeneous competition driven by excessive resource input, leading to low-quality competition [2]. - In 2024, airlines are expected to shift their revenue management strategy from "ticket price priority" to "seat occupancy priority," which could improve fleet turnover and occupancy rates, thereby increasing revenue and reducing costs. However, the historical high occupancy rates in the second half of 2024, coupled with ticket prices lower than those in 2019, may hinder the industry's recovery from losses [2]. - Since 2025, the supply-demand dynamics in aviation have been improving, with early signs of enhanced revenue management strategies observed in April and May. The "anti-involution" measures are likely to reduce excessive price competition, aiding in the recovery of industry profitability and ensuring slow growth in fleet planning [2]. Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to help maintain a healthy competitive pricing environment in the express delivery sector. The State Post Bureau has reiterated its commitment to opposing "involution" competition, as leading companies have engaged in price wars since the second half of 2024, leading to increased competition and pressure on profitability [3]. - There are concerns about the potential for a return to below-cost competition; however, the "anti-involution" stance is likely to foster a conducive environment for natural market consolidation and the rise of leading companies [3]. Bulk Supply Chain - The "anti-involution" approach is projected to stabilize and potentially increase bulk commodity prices, which would benefit profitability in the bulk supply chain sector. These companies, primarily engaged in supply chain finance, have faced challenges due to declining commodity prices and increased risk management requirements over the past two years [3]. - Key industries such as steel and coal are targeted for "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to capacity reduction and stabilization of commodity prices. Consequently, bulk supply chain companies are expected to gradually recover their profitability, with leading firms likely to continue gaining market share [3].