国泰海通｜转折之年——钢铁观点合集

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, with demand stabilizing and supply-side reductions contributing to a recovery after a prolonged downturn in profitability since 2021 [1][4][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The steel industry's profitability began to decline in 2021 and has continued to decrease, with initial signs of bottoming out in early 2024 [1][4]. - Demand for steel is gradually stabilizing, with limited downward pressure due to a decrease in the proportion of demand from the real estate sector and an increase in manufacturing and export demand [5][9]. - The industry has been experiencing a significant reduction in supply since 2018, with no new capacity allowed and existing capacity being controlled since 2021, leading to a market-driven exit of inefficient producers [5][10]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The real estate sector's contribution to steel demand has decreased to below 20%, reducing its negative impact on the industry, while infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to support demand [9][14]. - Steel exports have shown resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 20.60% in the first eight months of 2024, indicating a stable demand environment [14]. - The expectation of supply contraction is reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at reducing low-efficiency production and promoting industry consolidation [10][18]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost of steel production is expected to decline due to increased supply of coking coal and iron ore, which will help restore profitability in the industry [6][11]. - The concentration of the steel industry is anticipated to increase, with leading companies benefiting from product structure and cost advantages, enhancing their competitive edge [6][15]. - The profitability of the industry is projected to recover gradually, with a reported profit margin of 9.96% for 247 steel companies as of September 2024, reflecting an improvement from previous lows [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is poised for a recovery phase, with expectations of improved demand and supply restructuring leading to enhanced profitability for leading firms [17][18]. - The implementation of policies aimed at promoting mergers and acquisitions is expected to accelerate, further enhancing the growth potential and profitability of leading steel companies [18][19].