“抢出口”角色在改变（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]