【电新公用环保】如何理解“反内卷”政策下，光伏板块定价策略——电新公用环保行业周报20250713（殷中枢/邓怡亮）

Overall Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction across various industries, including photovoltaics, with significant policy support and stronger actions expected to continue into Q3 2025 [3] - Short-term price increases in silicon materials are a response to policy changes, with N-type polysilicon prices rising to 43-49 yuan/kg, and subsequent price increases in solar cells and modules anticipated [3] Mid-term Focus - Attention is on whether silicon material "stockpiling" can be achieved, with key concerns around the valuation of the stockpiled capacity and the interest costs for funding parties [4] - The market expects that if the stockpiled capacity is valued at net asset value with a discount, the implicit market pricing logic suggests silicon prices should not exceed 40 yuan/kg; otherwise, administrative intervention may be necessary [4] - Funding parties are likely to participate if the initial price of stockpiled capacity is low, and if stockpiling can clear supply while maintaining silicon prices above 50 yuan/kg [4] Wind Power - Wind power is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" policies, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine segment by 2026 due to larger units and cost reductions in components [4] - The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with improved output curves for wind power likely leading to a recovery in wind power development and project sales [4] - Short-term pressures on wind power bidding and Q2 performance are expected, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, with improving expectations for related indicators [4] Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries remains positive, despite recent weak performance due to prior high price increases [5] - Focus on all-solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide in the supply chain, which are expected to benefit from new tenders from major lithium battery manufacturers [5] - Attention is also on the progress of semi-solid batteries and electrolyte modifications, as liquid or semi-solid batteries can adopt solid-state processes, leading to better performance and faster implementation [5] Energy Storage - Mid-term profitability improvements for large-scale energy storage depend on the development of the electricity market and increased trading flexibility, with ongoing subsidies needed in the short term [6] - The commercial model for large-scale energy storage is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of tender data changes in the second half of the year [6]