近期就业政策的4点观察

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on recent employment policies in China, highlighting four key areas: increased investment in labor-based relief projects, enhanced unemployment insurance, expanded one-time employment subsidies, and the reintroduction of social insurance deferral policies [2][14]. Group 1: Labor-Based Relief Projects - The central government has significantly increased investment in labor-based relief projects, with a total of 29.5 billion yuan allocated for 2025, compared to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 [5][18]. - The policy aims to provide employment opportunities for over 700,000 disadvantaged individuals by participating in infrastructure projects [5][21]. - The proportion of labor remuneration in central project funding has been raised from over 30% to over 40% [5][18]. Group 2: Unemployment Insurance - The unemployment insurance policy aims to stabilize employment by refunding a certain percentage of the previous year's unemployment insurance contributions to companies [7][22]. - The refund cap for large enterprises has been increased from 30% to 50%, while for small and medium-sized enterprises, it has risen from 60% to 90% [7][22]. - The estimated refund amount for 2024 could range from 39.4 billion to 59.1 billion yuan, based on the increased refund ratios [8][25]. Group 3: One-Time Employment Subsidies - The one-time employment subsidy has been expanded to include social organizations, with a subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan per person for hiring unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][30]. - The target group for this subsidy has shifted from recent graduates to include all unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][32]. - The youth unemployment rate reached 14.9% in May 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in youth employment [9][32]. Group 4: Social Insurance Deferral Policies - The reintroduced social insurance deferral policy allows companies facing operational difficulties to defer their contributions to social insurance, including pension and unemployment insurance [11][36]. - The specifics of the deferral period have not been clarified, but it aims to alleviate cash flow pressures for struggling businesses [11][39]. - The potential financial relief from deferring pension contributions could amount to approximately 21.2 trillion yuan if applied broadly [11][40].