中金缪延亮：美元霸权的“双锚”——从国家信用的“法理之锚”到全球市场的“功能之锚”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, emphasizing the dual anchors of the US dollar: the "legal anchor" based on national credit and the "functional anchor" provided by its robust financial markets, which have allowed the dollar to maintain and even strengthen its global position despite various crises [1][2]. Group 1: Sovereign Currency Anchor - The evolution of currency forms has transitioned from commodity-based (gold and silver) to credit-based systems, with modern fiat currencies relying on national credit as their "legal anchor" [4][7]. - The modern fiat currency's essence is a special debt backed by national sovereignty, which requires public trust in its value and stability [8]. Group 2: International Currency Anchor - The international monetary system relies on a dual anchoring mechanism, where the "legal anchor" is supported by national credit, while the "functional anchor" is established through a strong financial market that provides stability and liquidity [9][10]. - The US dollar's global dominance is attributed to its extensive and efficient financial market, which supports a vast array of transactions and serves as a safe haven for global capital [10][14]. Group 3: Historical Validation of the Dollar's Functional Anchor - The dollar's international status was solidified through historical events, including the establishment of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent oil dollar mechanism, which reinforced its role as a global reserve currency [19][24]. - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the dollar's position as the "ultimate safe asset," as global capital flowed into US markets despite the crisis originating in the US [28][30]. Group 4: Implications for the Renminbi - The current shift in the international monetary system presents a strategic opportunity for the internationalization of the Renminbi, as the weakening of the dollar's dominance creates a window for alternative currencies [37][41]. - The article suggests that building a strong financial market and strategically planning for international currency status are crucial for the Renminbi's future [39][40].