中金：金融数据中的“反内卷”线索——6月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates an improvement in credit and monetary supply, with new credit and social financing exceeding market expectations, suggesting potential support for the "anti-involution" policy [1][3][14]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In June, new credit reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, surpassing market expectations [3]. - The government bond issuance continued to increase year-on-year, with 1.35 trillion yuan in new government bonds issued in June, up by 503.2 billion yuan from the previous year [3]. - The stock of social financing saw a year-on-year growth rate rise from 8.7% in May to 8.9% in June, driven by government bonds and credit [3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply - M1's year-on-year growth rate increased from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2's growth rate rose from 7.9% to 8.3% during the same period [3][14]. - The increase in M1 and M2 suggests a potential for further improvement in the third quarter, with M1 expected to show the most significant growth [14]. Group 3: Short-term Loans and Economic Implications - The new short-term loans for enterprises reached a record high of 1.16 trillion yuan in June, indicating a significant rise in corporate financing [9][10]. - The sustainability of this increase in short-term loans is crucial for understanding future macroeconomic trends, with potential implications for debt repayment and internal demand recovery [12]. - The commitment from major automotive companies to reduce supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days highlights the focus on improving cash flow and reducing accounts payable [12]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - Fiscal deposits decreased by 820 billion yuan in June, but the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal deposits rose to 23.9%, indicating that fiscal policy still has room to support growth and monetary supply [13]. - The potential release of funds from fiscal deposits could boost M2 growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points if the growth rate returns to normal levels [13].