【广发宏观钟林楠】M1增速为何上行较快

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in social financing (社融) in June, which amounted to 4.2 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in credit and financing conditions [1][5]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Overview - In June, social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation of approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.9%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][5]. Factors Influencing Credit Growth - The increase in real credit amounted to 2.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 171 billion yuan, influenced by four main factors: stronger seasonal credit demand, the issuance of special government bonds, central bank liquidity support, and concentrated government-led project financing [1][6]. Structural Changes in Loans - Residential loans remained stable at low levels, while corporate loans showed significant changes. Short-term corporate loans increased by 490 billion yuan, reflecting stronger seasonal demand and the impact of structural tools. Corporate bill financing decreased by 371.6 billion yuan, and long-term loans saw a slight increase of 40 billion yuan [2][7]. Government Bond Financing - Government bonds increased by 1.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan. The proportions of national bonds, local government new bonds, and special refinancing bonds were 58%, 30%, and 12%, respectively [2][8]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans increased by 32.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 113.3 billion yuan, benefiting from a low base last year and a weaker US dollar [3][9]. M1 Growth - M1 growth in June was 4.6%, up by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 500 billion yuan, the highest in five years. This was attributed to strong financing from government projects, reduced debt repayment impacts, and high foreign trade settlement [3][10]. Overall Assessment - The overall expansion of credit and social financing in June, along with the initial elasticity in M1 growth, supports a positive market risk appetite. The first half of the year saw a year-on-year increase in real credit of 279.6 billion yuan and a total social financing increase of 4.74 trillion yuan, aligning with a moderately loose monetary policy [4][11].