野村首席观点 | 野村苏博文：特朗普关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].