冲突，出海，阅兵！大事件催化下的军工板块获资金涌入，ETF如何选择？

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector has seen significant growth due to geopolitical tensions, with a notable increase in stock prices and ETF investments, indicating strong market interest and potential opportunities [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - From April 8 to June 30, the defense and military sector experienced a price increase of 27.7%, with over 10% of listed companies reaching historical highs [2]. - The military leader ETF (512710.SH) saw a growth of 76.3 million shares in the first half of the year, ranking third among stock ETFs [2]. - The military ETF (512660.SH) also reported an increase of over 40 million shares, with several defense ETFs growing by more than 10 million shares this year [3]. Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - China's defense budget is projected to reach 1.78 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, with military spending accounting for 1.26% of GDP [6]. - The global military trade market is expected to grow to $111.6 billion in 2024, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with China's military trade share estimated at approximately 220 billion yuan [9]. - The C919 aircraft's domestic production rate is at 60%, with a target of producing 150 aircraft annually by 2029, indicating strong growth potential in the aviation sector [9]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The military sector is entering a phase of accelerated demand recovery, driven by the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [11]. - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to showcase advanced military technologies, further boosting market sentiment and interest in the military sector [14]. - The military industry is anticipated to undergo significant upgrades, with a focus on intelligent and unmanned systems, aligning with global trends in military modernization [11][14]. Group 4: ETF Investment Landscape - Despite moderate returns, military ETFs have shown strong capital attraction, with all five military ETFs yielding over 8% this year [15]. - The largest military ETFs, including military ETF (512660.SH) and military leader ETF (512710.SH), reported returns of 8.2% and 8.7% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. - The index tracking the military sector, the China Securities Military Index, has a cumulative return of 75.78% since its inception, indicating strong long-term performance [21].