再论看股做债，不是股债双牛——6月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity easing is primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits, leading to a market logic that favors equities over bonds, rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [3][5][6] - Unlike previous instances where household deposit relocation occurred after economic expectations improved, this time it is policy-driven, with the underlying fundamentals still in a bottoming phase, resulting in strong market expectations for further central bank easing [3][6][19] - Continuous relocation of household deposits may raise concerns for the central bank regarding idle funds, and the necessity for further loans to stimulate investment is decreasing, unless specific adverse economic events occur [3][7][19] Financial Data Summary - In June 2025, new social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][25] - M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while new M1 increased by 4.6%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics [2][28] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with a total of 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, reflecting a strong demand for credit [21][27] Analysis of Liquidity Dynamics - When household deposit relocation is the main driver of liquidity, the market logic tends to favor equities, creating a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [5][12] - The current environment suggests a preference for equities over bonds, as household deposit relocation is not linked to improved economic expectations but rather to policy initiatives [6][15] - The central bank's future actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both equity and bond markets [9][19]