短贷助推信贷改善——6月金融数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in credit is primarily driven by the rapid growth of short-term loans from enterprises, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 490 billion [3][46] - In June, total new credit reached 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, where enterprise loans increased by 1.4 trillion, mainly from short-term loans [3][46] - The cautious attitude of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of the PMI production expectation index from 53.3 to 52.0 [3][46] Credit and Loan Data - In June, new loans to residents amounted to 597.6 billion, showing a mild improvement, primarily from operational loans rather than consumption or housing needs [3][13] - The increase in household loans was 1.17 trillion in the first half of the year, with operational loans contributing 923.9 billion [3][13] - The BCI employment outlook index was at 49.1, indicating a challenging employment environment affecting consumer loans [3][13] Social Financing and Government Bonds - The year-on-year increase in social financing expanded, mainly due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 4.7 trillion in the first half of the year [4][47] - Government bond net financing contributed 4.3 trillion to the social financing increase, but the rapid improvement phase may be coming to an end [4][47] - Future social financing growth may stabilize as government bond financing levels remain high [4][47] Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated that the effects of monetary policy will take time to manifest, with new policy tools expected to stimulate credit growth and stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [4][22] - The implementation of monetary policy will be adjusted based on domestic and international economic conditions [4][22] M1 and M2 Growth - In June, new credit totaled 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, primarily from the enterprise sector [5][48] - M2 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, while M1 rose by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% [5][49] - The structure of deposits showed an increase in household deposits by 2.47 trillion and enterprise deposits by 1.78 trillion, while fiscal deposits decreased [5][49]