【光大研究每日速递】20250716

Macro - In June 2025, China's export growth rate rose to 5.8%, driven by resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" strategies towards the U.S. [4] - Looking ahead, the postponement of tariff deadlines to August 1 may sustain demand for Chinese exports, although global trade volumes are expected to decline if tariff policies are fully implemented [4] - Overall, China's exports may face slight pressure in the second half of the year, primarily due to a decline in global trade volumes rather than direct exports to the U.S. [4] Banking - In June 2025, loan issuance surged, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans for the first half of the year; corporate loans played a stabilizing role while retail credit showed seasonal growth [5] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of May [5] - M1 and M2 growth rates were revised upward, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing, indicating potential for continued positive performance in the banking sector [5] Materials - The price of polysilicon has increased for the first time in three months, while the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached a 19-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [6] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo by three months highlights ongoing strategic value in rare earth materials [6] Energy - Gansu Province has released a draft notice on establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation, which is expected to benefit thermal power across the country, especially in regions with high wind and solar capacity [7] Company Updates - Chengzhi Shareholding (000990.SZ) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit of 15 million to 22 million yuan, down 88.24% to 91.98% year-on-year [8] - Aohua Endoscopy (688212.SH) has received domestic certification for its new generation 4K ultra-high-definition endoscope system AQ-400 series, which is expected to drive growth upon market launch [9] - Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) has received approval for its Qifang Nasal Tablets in Macau, marking a significant achievement in its R&D efforts, with expectations for improved performance throughout 2025 [10]