汇添富基金陈思行：新宏观范式下的债券投资

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of trading ability in bond investment as the market transitions into a low-interest-rate environment and the era of credit expansion comes to an end [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Framework Characteristics - The investment framework of Chen Sixing is characterized by a strong ability to judge investor behavior and sentiment, utilizing trading spreads to gauge market emotions [3][16]. - Chen identifies a single main contradiction in the market at each stage, which is crucial for refined trading strategies [3][18]. - The framework includes flexible portfolio management, adjusting bond duration exposure based on the characteristics of equity assets [3][35]. Group 2: Career Development and Learning - Over 15 years, Chen has developed her investment philosophy through various roles, learning to balance profit maximization with risk management across different investment types [6][11]. - The transition from proprietary trading to pension fund investment allowed her to establish a macroeconomic cycle and asset allocation system [9][10]. - Joining Huatai Fund introduced the necessity of managing liabilities and liquidity constraints in investment decisions [10][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The bond market has shifted from being influenced by macroeconomic data to being driven by micro-level factors such as trading structures and investor behavior [13][14]. - Chen's investment framework has evolved to incorporate a micro-level database for assessing investor sentiment, moving beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators [14][30]. - The identification of the main contradiction in the market is essential for forming effective trading strategies, with a focus on the most impactful data at any given time [19][20][30]. Group 4: Portfolio Management and Risk Control - The management of bond portfolios requires an understanding of the correlation between equity styles and bond performance, leading to differentiated management strategies [32][35]. - Chen emphasizes the importance of adjusting bond positions based on the performance of equity assets, particularly during periods of market volatility [36][37]. - The team at Huatai Fund operates with a specialized division of labor, enhancing collaboration and efficiency in investment strategies [39][41]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The outlook for bond assets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on interest rates, although the absolute returns may be lower due to increased market volatility [44][45]. - The market is currently in a phase of re-evaluating lower funding costs, with future directions uncertain until new signals emerge [45].