短贷助推信贷改善——6月金融数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in credit is primarily driven by the rapid growth of short-term loans from enterprises, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 490 billion [3][46] - In June, total new credit reached 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, where enterprise loans increased by 1.4 trillion, mainly from short-term loans [3][46] - The cautious attitude of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of the PMI business expectation index from 53.3 to 52.0 [3][46] Credit and Loan Analysis - In June, household loans showed a mild improvement, largely attributed to operational loans rather than consumer or housing loans, with operational loans accounting for 73.7% of new household loans [3][13] - The total household loans increased by 1.17 trillion in the first half of the year, with operational loans rising by 923.9 billion [3][13] - The slow growth in consumer loans may be linked to current employment prospects, as indicated by the BCI employment expectation index at 49.1 [3][13] Social Financing and Government Bonds - The year-on-year increase in social financing scale has expanded, primarily due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 4.7 trillion in the first half of the year [4][47] - The net financing from government bonds contributed 4.3 trillion to the social financing increase, but this rapid improvement phase may be coming to an end [4][47] - Moving into the third quarter, the high base of government bond net financing may lead to a more stable growth rate in social financing [4][47] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will be adjusted based on domestic and international economic conditions, with a focus on the timing and intensity of policy implementation [4][22] - The People's Bank of China indicated that the effects of already implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest over time [4][22] - New policy financial tools introduced in the second half of the year may help stimulate credit growth and stabilize the economy [4][22] Regular Monitoring of M1 and M2 - In June, new credit totaled 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, mainly driven by the enterprise sector [5][48] - The structure of loans shows that short-term loans increased by 1.16 trillion, while medium and long-term loans saw a smaller increase of 400 billion [5][48] - The M2 growth rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, while M1 increased by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% [5][49]