中金7月数说资产

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in domestic demand, necessitating further policy support to stimulate growth [3][14]. Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from Q1, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [4][14]. - Industrial output in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, driven by exports, while domestic demand showed significant decline [5][14]. - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May, influenced by earlier online promotions and regulatory policies [5][34]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with construction investment particularly affected [6][8]. - Manufacturing investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 7.5%, down from 8.5% in the first five months, primarily due to fundamental economic pressures rather than policy factors [7][8]. - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 8.9% in the first half of 2025, with traditional infrastructure projects lagging behind [8][9]. Real Estate Market - New housing sales in June saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in value, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate market [9][30]. - The investment in real estate development also faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in June [31][32]. Financial Data - Financial indicators showed improvement, with M1 and M2 money supply growth accelerating, reflecting a more favorable liquidity environment [10][25]. - New social financing in June reached 4.2 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in credit demand [25][26]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with a notable decline in discretionary spending categories, while essential goods maintained steady growth [34][35]. - The government is expected to implement more robust policies to stimulate consumer demand, particularly in the context of ongoing economic challenges [36][37].