光大证券研究·2025-07-15 13:10Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, rebounding by 1 percentage point from the previous month, primarily due to resilient non-U.S. exports and a "rush to export" to the U.S. following the easing of China-U.S. trade relations. The export structure is improving, with labor-intensive product exports turning positive year-on-year. The effects of the "two heavy" and "two new" policies continue to drive import stabilization through expanded domestic demand [4][6]. Summary by Sections Export Data - Exports amounted to $325.18 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.2% and the previous value of $316.1 billion, which was up 4.8% year-on-year [6]. - The export structure is shifting towards higher quality and new products, with labor-intensive product exports showing positive growth [4]. Import Data - Imports totaled $210.41 billion, increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 0.2% and the previous value of $212.88 billion, which had decreased by 3.4% year-on-year [6]. - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are beginning to show positive effects, contributing to a recovery in both production and demand [4]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to the previous value of $103.22 billion [6]. Future Outlook - Due to the postponement of reciprocal tariff deadlines to August 1, along with unexpected increases in tariffs proposed by Trump on other countries, a "double rush" demand is expected to persist until August, indirectly boosting China's exports [4]. - The anticipated positive effects of domestic demand policies are expected to continue, leading to a recovery in import demand. However, uncertainties remain regarding the timing of tariff implementations and negotiations between countries and the U.S. [4]. - Overall, exports may face slight pressure in the second half of the year, primarily due to a decline in global trade volumes rather than direct exports to the U.S. [4].