光大证券研究·2025-07-15 13:10Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial statistics released by the central bank for June 2025, highlighting the growth in M2, M1, new RMB loans, and social financing, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic environment and credit conditions [2][3][6]. Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In June, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion, an increase of 1.1 trillion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 7.1%, remaining stable compared to the end of May [3]. - The total social financing in June reached 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion, and a growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of May [6]. - For the first half of the year, new RMB loans totaled 12.9 trillion, a decrease of 350 billion year-on-year, indicating a challenging environment for effective demand [3]. Group 2: Corporate and Retail Lending - Corporate loans in June increased by 1.77 trillion, accounting for 79% of new loans, demonstrating the role of corporate lending as a stabilizing force [4]. - Retail loans in June amounted to 597.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7 billion, but the growth in consumer demand for housing remains limited [5]. - The first half of the year saw a total of 1.17 trillion in new residential loans, a decrease of 290 billion year-on-year, reflecting weak growth in short-term loans [5]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and Market Performance - M2 grew by 8.3% year-on-year in June, while M1 increased by 4.6%, with the gap between M2 and M1 narrowing by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [7]. - The banking sector index has risen by 21.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.2 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance in the market [8].