中国垃圾是如何不够烧的

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese waste incineration industry is experiencing a shift from a "garbage siege" to "oversupply," with many incineration plants facing insufficient waste supply due to overcapacity and changes in waste generation patterns [3][4][5]. Industry Changes - In the first half of 2025, a survey revealed that two-thirds of waste incineration plants are struggling with insufficient waste supply [3]. - The proportion of waste incineration in urban waste management has dramatically increased from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill disposal has decreased from 85.2% to 7.5% [3]. - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic waste incineration projects is around 60%, indicating a significant portion of capacity is underutilized [4][7]. Reasons for Supply-Demand Imbalance - The overcapacity is attributed to two main factors: overly optimistic projections of future waste generation and the impact of waste classification, which has reduced the amount of combustible waste available for incineration [3][9]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand [8][9]. Future Trends - Waste incineration plants are being urged to diversify their operations, such as providing steam and hot water or collaborating on sludge treatment, to adapt to the changing market [4][15]. - The industry is also looking to expand into international markets, with over 80 overseas waste incineration projects involving Chinese companies [4][8]. Financial Challenges - The revenue model for waste incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies and waste disposal fees, with electricity sales accounting for about two-thirds of their income [14][15]. - Recent policy changes have led to a reduction in government subsidies, increasing the financial pressure on these plants and prompting them to seek higher waste disposal fees from local governments [15][17]. Market Dynamics - The shift in waste generation patterns, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to a notable decrease in waste supply, with some plants reporting utilization rates as low as 24% [8][9]. - The industry is facing increased operational costs due to the need to excavate previously landfilled waste to meet incineration capacity [11][12].