LSEG跟“宗” | 关税令美元铜价急升 9月美减息几率下降

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment and price predictions for precious metals, particularly focusing on gold, silver, and copper, influenced by U.S. market conditions and geopolitical factors [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The prediction for copper has changed due to the U.S. stock market reaching historical highs, which has increased speculative sentiment and supported copper prices despite potential tariffs [2][18]. - The World Gold Council reported a significant inflow into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of $380 billion in the first half of the year, the highest since the pandemic began [2][26]. - The gold price has accumulated a 25.7% increase year-to-date, while fund long positions have decreased by 13.3% [7][9]. Group 2: Fund Positions and Market Dynamics - As of July 8, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1.4% to 419 tons, while net long positions in silver decreased to 6,781 tons, marking a 4.4% decline [3][7]. - The gold/silver ratio indicates market sentiment, with a current ratio of 87.46, reflecting a decline of 3.3% week-over-week, suggesting high risk awareness in the market [22]. - The article highlights that the market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, which is influencing stock market dynamics and precious metal prices [23][25]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The potential imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. has created uncertainty, leading to a temporary spike in copper prices, but fundamentally could reduce demand [2][25]. - The article notes that geopolitical risks, including U.S.-China relations and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, are likely to impact market conditions and investor sentiment in the coming months [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The article suggests that the investment community is increasingly focused on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors, which may be affecting the performance of mining stocks relative to the underlying commodities [20]. - The North American region has seen a strong increase in gold ETF inflows, contrasting with a modest 1.7% increase in Asia, indicating shifting investment patterns [26].